"Jan-kenna-man-kenna-socka-socka-pon!"
THAT was our battle cry growing up, learning to throw down our fists in the shape of our weapon of choice. Jan-ken-pon was pretty popular in Hawaii in the 90's, what with its larger Japanese population. We often used the game to settle minor disputes, to see who got to ride up front or who got to go first in line. How often our knuckles cracked like fireworks. How often our palms ached. Our fingers thobbed with the rhythm of our racing hearts because you only ever play to win.
With that in mind, I've noticed some things playing rock-paper-scissors through the years. What I like about the game is that it requires quick choices, immediate choices, really. There's no strategizing or pre-planning. No one can think that fast. You just choose and it's all random, like the roll of a die.
Or is it?
Most people I've played or seen play tend to lead with rock. Why is that? I think because of the fact that everyone wants to win. There's no point in playing if you don't want to win. And so, everyone picks rock as their opening sign because in their minds it is 1. the first sign they think of since the game is called ROCK-paper-scissors, and 2. because a rock is in reality the strongest element of the three hand-signs. It's difficult to rationalize how a piece of paper triumphs over a chunk of granite.
There are no random actions, unless your opponent isn't thinking. Most rational human beings make rational decisions, even at high speeds. Human beings playing rock-paper-scissors are often non-random.
That having been said, a lot of the times the first round is a tie. But if it isn't, it's either because someone was thinking they could be sneaky and play scissors in the hopes that their opponent would open with paper, which no one ever does. Or maybe someone actually did open with paper. Bust out the party hats and cake, you've just seen a rare, historic event!
At any rate, the game is now over. Go home happy and resume your lives.
But what if there were two rocks on the first round. Now it gets trickier to predict, seemingly. There's little chance that the human mind will revert to rock again, unless the player pointedly decides it. What I've found, is that on the second round, especially if the first round was a rock-tie, people play paper. A couple reasons for this: 1. they already saw rock and their minds immediately jump to rock's weakness of paper, 2. they still want to win, now probably much more after having tied the first round. So paper went from being the least played to the most played between the first and second rounds. A person who plays paper on the second round after a rock-tie follows their impulse.
Sure, there's a chance someone will be real nutty and play scissors on the second round, following a rock-tie, but they'll have to be real conscious about it. Scissors following rocks seems to be the weakest choice. Even less likely will someone play a rock the second round.
So let's say then that the first round was a rock-tie (which is pretty probable) and the second round is a paper-tie (which is somewhat probable), what do you think will likely occur in the third round? You guessed it, a scissors-tie. The human mind automatically jumped to scissors for the same reasons it jumped to the other hand-signals. Consider also, that scissors is the last element of the three in the title: Rock-Paper-Scissors.
Therefore, playing the game of Jan-ken-pon is highly psychological, not in that you're trying to outthink your opponent, but that you're trying to get in his head. If you can guess what he's going to play next, then you've got the finger motions to make sure he runs home in defeat. It doesn't matter how fast you are. It doesn't matter if you can see hand-signs forming and show yours late. Depending on the result of the first round, the second round is effected, and then the third should the second be a tie, and then the fourth, the fifth, sixth, seventh, eight, ad infinitum. The probabilities of your opponent reverting to specific hand-signs changes with each round, with the best probability going to the sign that was stronger than the previous sign. And now you'll never be able to play the same way again. Sorry about that.
Now don't even get me started on rock-paper-scissors with three or more people...
~norton
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